乐鱼（Leyu）体育官网 Economics
A source for unbiased economic intelligence to help improve strategic decision-making.
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What鈥檚 impacting labor market participation? Why are some sectors faring better than others? How do you separate the signal from the noise? 乐鱼（Leyu）体育官网 Economics answers these questions and more, providing timely insight and analysis into the economic indicators. We monitor trends and identify potential opportunities that could impact your strategic objectives. Our perspectives look at both the short-term and long-term economic factors that are critical to guiding strategic decisions.
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Walking a tightrope: Biannual economic outlook
Aggressive rate cuts could destabilize the bond market.
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Construction in the crosshairs: Downside risks via shifts in trade and immigration policy
Immigrant workers helped cool excessive wage growth.
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Gaming out trade wars: Parsing the impact
De-escalation is still possible.
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Global Navigator from 乐鱼（Leyu）体育官网 Economics
Higher rates impede private investment and worsen fiscal outlook.
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Navigating increasingly complex supply chains: Five trends shaping the economic landscape
Inflation risks rise.
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The care crisis: Eldercare collides with childcare
The advent of GenAI and the ways it can upskill formal care providers should reduce costs and improve care.
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The parental work disruption index: A new measure of the childcare crisis
Lack of access to childcare results in millions of lost work hours, which have downstream effects on productivity.
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乐鱼（Leyu）体育官网 Economics distributes a wide selection of insight and analysis to help businesses make informed decisions.
Economic Coordinates
Explore analysis of key data indicators, such as job creation and the labor market, consumer spending, inflation, investment, housing and monetary policy. These combined data points are indicators of the overall health of the economy.
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Consumers took on more debt in April
Consumer balance sheets continue to be stressed.
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Quiet before the storm
Inflation cooled but not enough to get consumers to open up their pocketbooks.
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Household debt is reverting to pre-pandemic levels
Consumer spending is likely to slow this year.
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Retail sales underperformed in April
Consumer attitudes have deteriorated.
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People are dropping out of the labor force at their fastest pace since April 2020.
People are dropping out of the labor force at their fasted pace since April 2020.听
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Job openings stuck in a range in April
We are expecting a slight uptick in unemployment by the end of this quarter.
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Labor market fragility
Manufacturing employment is suffering from higher input costs and disruptions to supply chains.
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March JOLTS: Calm before a potential storm
Job postings have fallen by five percentage points so far in 2025.
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Powell in 鈥渨ait and see鈥� mode
The Fed is in no hurry to decide on rates.
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The Fed retreats to the sidelines
Some of the damage to the economy is already underway.
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Stubbornly high inflation and heightened uncertainty sideline Fed
Powell was clear that tariffs had influenced the forecasts for growth.
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Opposing views within the Fed
Other measures of inflation reveal more stickiness to inflation.
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April new home sales increase; existing home sales decrease
Economic uncertainty, high mortgage rates and rising costs of owning a home weigh down outlook.
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Multifamily housing starts expanded
There is no silver bullet.
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New Home Sales Surge
The housing market is facing significant headwinds.
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New residential construction dives
Home builders tighten their belts.
No results found.
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Trade deficit narrowed in April
April revealed the largest one-month narrowing of the deficit on record.
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Construction spending fell monthly and annually
Construction is cooling.
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Capital spending appears to be slowing
The primary drag was aircraft orders.
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Industrial production flagged after tariffs were announced
The auto industry appears to be headed toward stagflation.
No results found.
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Access to business loans tightens
A less favorable economic outlook
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Banks are tightening credit
Banks tightened lending standards at year-end.
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Loan demand weakens
There is reason for the Federal Reserve to further cut interest rates.
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Bank lending is improving for consumers
Expect more rate cuts.
No results found.
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Assessing LATAM potential
Latam growth slow but steady in 2025.
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Look for weaker growth in Latam in 2025
Fiscal sustainability remains a concern.
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Five key considerations as US faces port strike
45,000 dockworkers on the East Coast and Gulf Coast are poised to strike on October 1st unless a last-minute deal is brokered.
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Latin America: Growth outlook hampered by sticky inflation
Inflation progress will slow.
乐鱼（Leyu）体育官网 Global Economic Outlook
Register now for the 乐鱼（Leyu）体育官网 Global Economic Outlook webinar scheduled for June 5th. This session will feature regional Chief Economists, the Global Geopolitics Lead, the Global Trade and Customs leader, along with senior advisors from 乐鱼（Leyu）体育官网, offering an insightful quarterly briefing designed specifically for executive decision-makers.
乐鱼（Leyu）体育官网 Economics in the news:
乐鱼（Leyu）体育官网's chief economist Diane Swonk highlighted concerns about potential stagflation and the impact of tariffs on inflation, noting that recent cooling inflation might not last. 乐鱼（Leyu）体育官网's report underscores the uncertainty in macroeconomic conditions, emphasizing the potential economic challenges ahead. Walmart, facing pressure from tariffs, is expected to absorb some costs, as indicated by CEO Doug McMillon and supported by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
May 21, 2025 |听
Diane Swonk, chief economist at 乐鱼（Leyu）体育官网, highlights the vulnerability of the economy due to depleted savings and increased financial stress on households. 乐鱼（Leyu）体育官网's insights emphasize the importance of the labor market in sustaining consumer spending, as businesses reassess staffing needs amid slowing growth. The overall delinquency rate has reached its highest level since 2020, driven by student loan delinquencies, adding further strain on consumers.
May 16, 2025 |听
The head of America's central banking system warned today of possibly higher long-term interest rates and suggested that supply chains could get snarled by tariffs. We consult with Diane Swonk, chief economist at 乐鱼（Leyu）体育官网: 鈥淪o we've got the calm before the storm. What we've seen is consumers have moved ahead of some of the price hikes that are out there. But we know they're coming. We know that the ports in California have been way down in terms of shipments in from China. And even as we try to restart trade from China, there will be some empty store shelves by the end of May. And we're seeing warnings across the board of price hikes that are coming in the pipeline. So, this may be the last really good inflation news we see in quite a while.鈥�
May 15, 2025 |听
乐鱼（Leyu）体育官网's senior economist, Yelena Maleyev, highlights the shift in consumer sentiment from 2022, noting increased concerns over job security and rising costs. conversation touches on the impact of tariffs on prices and consumer behavior, with Callie Cox emphasizing the importance of consumer spending, which constitutes 70% of GDP.
May 02, 2025 |听
CNBC鈥檚 Steve Liesman and 乐鱼（Leyu）体育官网鈥檚 Diane Swonk, joins 鈥楾he Exchange鈥� to discuss the latest jobs report.
May 02, 2025 |听
The U.S. economy experienced a contraction of 0.3% in GDP, marking the first decline since 2022, while core prices increased more than expected, indicating potential stagflation and recession concerns. 乐鱼（Leyu）体育官网's chief economist, Diane Swonk, highlighted the impact of tariffs and inventory buildups on economic growth, noting the Federal Reserve's challenges in managing inflation without the ability to cut rates quickly.
April 14, 2025 |听
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