ÀÖÓ㣨Leyu£©ÌåÓý¹ÙÍø

Economic Coordinates

Explore analysis of key data indicators, such as job creation and the labor market, consumer spending, inflation, investment, housing and monetary policy. These combined data points are indicators of the overall health of the economy.

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  Diane Swonk, chief economist at ÀÖÓ㣨Leyu£©ÌåÓý¹ÙÍø, joins CNBC’s “The Exchangeâ€� to discuss whether U.S. consumers under pressure, her outlook for U.S. markets and more.
  March 26, 2025 |ÌýÌý

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  Ken Kim, a senior economist at ÀÖÓ㣨Leyu£©ÌåÓý¹ÙÍø, wrote in a Wednesday note that orders for vehicles and parts had jumped 4% in February, the most significant rise in three years. The rise was due to front running in the auto industry to lock in prices before the tariffs could take effect. Industry estimates pegged the price increase on new vehicles in a range from about $2,000 to $10,000 or more, which would represent a 20% increase on the average transaction price of $48,500, Kim wrote. “Consumers are already reeling from elevated inflation,â€� Kim wrote. “Talk about sticker shock.â€� Overall, spending dropped 0.3% in February, the most meaningful decline in seven months, according to Kim, and it’s due to the uncertain economic outlook. “The drop could be an early indication that business leaders are pulling back on future capital spending due to the uncertain tariff environment.
  March 26, 2025 |

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  ÀÖÓ㣨Leyu£©ÌåÓý¹ÙÍø chief economist Diane Swonk says the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in May is low after the central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee decided to hold the benchmark interest rate steady and slow the pace of reducing the balance sheet.
  January 29, 2025 |Ìý
  

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  Federal Reserve officials will be convening in Washington, D.C., this week for the central bank's March FOMC meeting, concluding on Wednesday, March 19, with a decision on interest rates followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. ÀÖÓ㣨Leyu£©ÌåÓý¹ÙÍø senior economist Yelena Maleyev sits down with Market Domination's Julie Hyman and BD8 Capital Partners CEO and CIO Barbara Doran to talk more about the Fed's rate outlook as it digests recent inflation data and maneuvers around economic uncertainty stemming from President Trump's tariff policies.
  March 17, 2025 |Ìý

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  Diane Swonk, chief economist at ÀÖÓ㣨Leyu£©ÌåÓý¹ÙÍø, issued a report Monday that suggested that it remains possible that the Federal Reserve policy committee only cuts short-term interest rates once in 2025, instead of the three rate cuts that many earlier had anticipated for 2025. "The embers of inflation are still smoldering and are at risk of being reignited," Swonk wrote. "Tariffs are much larger and more broadly based than during the 2018-19 round," Swonk said. "That ups the ante on a more pernicious bout of inflation. Our trading partners are ready to retaliate and will seek to inflict the most economic and political pain possible." Swonk said supply chains are at risk for more disruptions, putting more pressure on the potential for higher prices. "A mild bout of stagflation is likely," Swonk said. "Hence our forecast for a Fed reluctant to resume rate cuts until early 2026."
  March 18, 2025 |
  

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  The stock market will be tuning into the Federal Reserve this week for insight into four issues of concern. The first is economic fragility. Economists are now busy slashing their growth estimates for the year. Julia Coronado, president of MacroPolicy Perspectives, said a survey of economists timed to coincide with the Fed meeting showed that analysts have slashed their growth forecasts from 2.2% to 1.5%. The second issue investors will want to hear about is whether the Fed can lower rates to help the slowing economy or if they hold off until they are confident the recent bump in inflation will prove temporary, said Diane Swonk, chief economist at ÀÖÓ㣨Leyu£©ÌåÓý¹ÙÍø.
  March 17, 2025 |Ìý

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  ABC Newsâ€� Martha Raddatz interviews ÀÖÓ㣨Leyu£©ÌåÓý¹ÙÍø Chief Economist Diane Swonk on “This Week.â€�
  March 16, 2025 |Ìý

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  Diane Swonk, ÀÖÓ㣨Leyu£©ÌåÓý¹ÙÍø Chief Economist, joins Kailey Leinz and Joe Mathieu on Bloomberg's "Balance of Power" to discuss U.S. consumer sentiment dropping and if President Trump's changing tariff plans are adding to this drop. She also talks about whether or not executives will be able to pass on import costs and if executives get a sense that President Trump is no longer very interested in stock market.
  March 14, 2025 |Ìý

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  “Imports tend to count against the GDP calculation,â€� said Meagan Schoenberger, senior economist with ÀÖÓ㣨Leyu£©ÌåÓý¹ÙÍø Economics. “Exports count towards the GDP calculation. While none of the other categories of GDP are expected to collapse in the first quarter, we could see a very weak first-quarter number, due to the fact that imports surged,â€� Schoenberger said. The balance of trade lately has averaged around 4% of the size of the economy as a whole. Meanwhile, GDP growth has been averaging about 2.75% a year. Schoenberger said there are big caveats to keep in mind with January’s jump in imports. For one, that surge probably won’t last. “It is probably likely that we’ll see it for the first couple months of the year. Importers will stock up, and then they may be in a wait-and-see mode,â€� Schoenberger said.
  March 17, 2025 |Ìý