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May 20, 2025

Total job openings in the United States fell to 7.2 million at the end of March, down from 7.5 million the month before. There are nearly one million fewer openings compared to a year ago, but openings have remained steady on a three-month moving average basis since June 2024.

Job openings fell in several large states month-over-month. Leading the declines were Massachusetts (-59,000), New York (-46,000), Florida (-38,000) and Texas (-31,000). Tennessee (+17,000) and Michigan (+15,000) posted the largest gains.

Real-time data from show that job postings have fallen by five percentage points so far in 2025. Postings in large states were mixed. They continue to be on a downward trend in Georgia, North Carolina, Texas and California. After falling, they are now edging higher in New York and Florida. That suggests there is still strong labor demand in certain regions.

Postings continued to crash in Washington, D.C., Maryland and Virginia. This reflects both direct layoffs of federal government employees as well as spillover effects on other industries that depend upon federal funding. Further declines are expected this summer and fall.

The ratio of job openings to unemployed job seekers, a measure of balance in the labor market tracked closely by Federal Reserve officials, fell to 1.0 in March. It had been 1.1 for five straight months. The ratio decreased month-over-month in 34 states and Washington, D.C., reflecting both the drop in job openings and an increase in the unemployed.

Low hiring rates continue to be offset by historically low layoff rates. Hiring fell to 3.5% from 5% in Florida but layoffs dropped to 0.8% from 1%. Likewise, both hiring and layoffs fell in New York. Layoffs rose in Ohio (to 1.2% from 0.9%) and Connecticut (to 1.5% from 1.1%). Within the low hiring environment, more layoffs will result in an increase in unemployment.

The slight rise in the quits rate at the national level in March can be seen in several states. The quits rate rose in California to 2% from 1.7% and in Texas to 2.3% from 2.2%. That likely reflects some optimism among workers. Still, quits changed little in most states.

ADP data show that the wage premium for switching jobs edged up to 6.9% in April from 6.7% in March. The premium has been flat at 6.8% for five straight months on a three-month moving average basis. Job stayers received the lowest pay increase in nearly four years. Along with a still low quits rate, this should put downward pressure on wage growth.

At the national level, the unemployment rate was basically flat at 4.15% in March from 4.14% in February. At the state level month-over-month, 46 states showed no statistically significant change in the unemployment rate. Changes occurred in Connecticut (3.6% in March from 3.4% in February), Massachusetts (4.4% from 4.3%), Virginia (3.2% from 3.1%) and Indiana (4.1% from 4.3%).