A ÀÖÓ㣨Leyu£©ÌåÓý¹ÙÍø quarterly analysis of global private equity activity
The Pulse of Private Equity report offers a comprehensive analysis of global and regional private equity (PE) activity through a unique methodology that integrates various datasets. Beginning with this inaugural edition looking at the performance of the private equity industry during Q1 2025, the report is designed to provide insights into the entire lifecycle of PE within each quarter from a global and regional perspective.
The global and U.S. PE markets in Q1 2025 were marked by a mix of cautious optimism and strategic shifts. While deal activity was more muted than expected, sectors with long-term growth potential and resilient business models continued to attract significant investment. The focus on value creation, flexible investment structures, and strategic exits will likely shape the landscape in the coming quarters.
On the global front, the start of Q1 2025 saw quieter-than-expected deal activity, with proposed PE deployment falling from $463.8 billion across 4,958 deals in Q4 2024 to $444.9 billion across 3,762 deals in Q1 2025. This cautious approach was driven by concerns over trade flows, pricing volatility, interest rates, and the potential for trade wars. Despite these challenges, global PE investors maintained a focus on sectors with long-term growth potential and predictable upsides.
Meanwhile, private equity investment in the U.S. remained steady in Q1 2025, with a notable increase from Q4 2024. Investment rose from $210 billion across 2,113 deals to $234 billion across 1,670 deals, marking a strong start to the year. However, momentum was tempered by concerns over newly implemented tariffs and the potential for retaliatory counter-tariffs. Supportive factors like ongoing deregulation and lower energy costs are expected to balance these headwinds and sustain PE investor confidence.
Q1 2025 Pulse of Private Equity report
Download PDFPrivate equity investment in the U.S. is expected to remain cautious through Q2'25, as market uncertainties and trade policy concerns persist. Despite some clarity on U.S. tariffs, questions about global responses and negotiation timelines linger. If significant trade progress is made in Q2, deal activity could rebound in the second half of 2025. Until then, PE firms will focus on tariff-resilient sectors like technology, business services, financial services, and healthcare. Recessionary concerns may widen the valuation gap between buyers and sellers, but pressure from limited partners to deliver liquidity could force exits, even at lower valuations.
1
U.S. private equity funds raised $66.8 billion across 80 deals in Q1 2025, a slight dip from the same period last year. The trend of fund sizes growing, driven by the largest and most established PE firms, continued. This consolidation has made fundraising challenging for smaller and mid-market players, especially first-time fund managers, as limited partners (LPs) prefer firms with broader platforms, proven track records, and perceived lower risk.
2
With rising interest rates, PE firms in the U.S. have shifted their focus from add-ons and roll-ups to real value creation. This includes applying superior management techniques and technologies to improve operational efficiencies, lower costs, and enhance value outputs. While add-ons remain a tool, they are now smaller and more focused on driving value within a business rather than just providing scale.
3
The energy sector in the Americas continued to attract strong interest from PE investors, with $35.7 billion in Q1 2025, compared to $94.4 billion in all of 2024. While enthusiasm for renewable energy assets has cooled, interest in traditional energy sources like natural gas and LNG has gained momentum. PE firms are also investing in energy transportation and storage infrastructure to capitalize on the growing need for reliable energy distribution.
4
Despite being exposed to tariff-related risks, the U.S. industrials sector saw renewed PE interest in Q1 2025. The sector's evolution in response to pandemic-era disruptions, with more flexible and resilient supply chains, has made select companies attractive targets. Their operational adaptability and proactive risk management have positioned them to weather shifting macroeconomic conditions.
5
There was widespread optimism that the IPO window would reopen in 2025, but renewed geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty in Q1 2025 delayed these plans. Many companies postponed IPOs, and private exits remained soft due to valuation mismatches. However, some notable exits occurred in the industrial manufacturing, energy, and healthcare sectors. As LPs continue to pressure for returns, PE funds are exploring alternative liquidity strategies, including rolling assets into continuation vehicles.
We’re going to see exits ramping up here in the U.S., partly because they have to given the enormity of exit pressure facing PE funds. And, because it’s easier to explain tariff mitigation to a sophisticated buyer than it is to explain it to the public, private sales will probably begin to pick up a lot sooner than IPO exits � before the end of the year, most likely.
Glenn Mincey
U.S. Head of Private Equity. ÀÖÓ㣨Leyu£©ÌåÓý¹ÙÍø in the U.S.
As Q2 2025 approaches, lingering tariff uncertainties and geopolitical tensions are expected to dampen global PE deal activity, potentially leading to a slowdown in transactions. However, this volatility may create opportunistic buying opportunities for investors willing to navigate the challenges. Deal flow is likely to focus on resilient sectors like business services, infrastructure, healthcare, and domestically focused businesses. Greater policy clarity could boost investor confidence and spur a recovery in dealmaking by the second half of 2025. Meanwhile, the exit market remains crucial, with rising demand for exits but continued market turbulence, especially in the IPO space, likely to keep public listings subdued through mid-year. LP pressure for capital returns may force exits at suboptimal valuations, particularly for funds nearing their end.
1
The Americas accounted for the largest share of proposed PE deployment in Q1 2025, with $287.1 billion in funding across 1,868 deals. In contrast, the EMA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) region saw a decline in both deal value and count, falling to $109.1 billion across 1,555 deals. This was partly due to major elections and a challenging economic environment in key markets like the UK, Germany, and France.
In the ASPAC region, Japan accounted for $20.2 billion of the $37.5 billion in PE announced deal value, nearly matching its 2024 annual total of $22.8 billion. Regulatory pressures and cultural shifts have made carve-outs and major restructuring more socially acceptable, creating new avenues for PE investors. China, however, saw very slow activity, with just $4 billion across 36 deals.
2
Infrastructure, including traditional sectors like energy transportation and storage, as well as IT and AI infrastructure, remained a significant focus for PE investors. The growing demand for processing capacity to support AI and generative AI has driven interest in data centers. This sector's ability to provide long-term stable cash flows makes it an attractive investment.
3
Globally, many corporations are transforming their businesses to become more efficient, focusing on protecting core operations and assets. Carve-outs and sales to PE firms have become more common, especially in countries like Japan, which have historically been less receptive to PE buyouts. In India, the trend has shifted from minority investments to majority investments, reflecting a more active role by PE firms.
4
PE firms are adopting more flexible investment structures, including minority stakes and co-investments with other PE firms, sovereign wealth funds, and family offices. This strategic shift allows firms to access a broader range of opportunities and manage risk more effectively, even in uncertain market conditions.
Over the next quarter, I believe that the exit market globally will be a key area to watch. LPs are putting a lot of pressure on PE funds to return capital and current tariff uncertainties aren't changing that given how protracted the exit drought has been. The reality is that we could start to see a number of forced exits at lower than planned valuations, particularly if the tariff uncertainties linger well into Q2'25.
Gavin Geminder
Global Head of Private Equity, ÀÖÓ㣨Leyu£©ÌåÓý¹ÙÍø International