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April 16, 2025

Total job openings in the United States cooled to 7.6 million at the end of February, down from 7.8 million the month before. The number of job openings is shrinking compared to a year earlier; on a three-month moving average basis, openings have remained steady since June 2024.

Job openings edged lower in several large states in different regions month-over-month. Leading the declines were Arizona (-71,000), New York (-33,000), Pennsylvania (-18,000) and Florida (-13,000). New Jersey actually posted a rise in job openings of 43,000.

Real-time data from show that job postings have been on the decline so far in 2025, falling three percentage points in the first quarter. Similar to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data, postings declined in large states in different regions. They are trending lower in Texas, Georgia and Florida, states that had higher labor demand in recent months. Openings are also declining in Massachusetts, New York and California; postings in these large states have been trending below the pre-pandemic baseline for months.

Labor demand has tanked in Washington, DC, Maryland and Virginia due to federal government layoffs and the spillover effects on other employers who receive federal funds. As private sector hiring has remained sluggish, this will likely lead to an increase in unemployment.

The ratio of job openings to unemployed job seekers, a measure of balance in the labor market tracked closely by Federal Reserve officials, remained flat at 1.1 for the fifth straight month. The ratio decreased month-over-month in 29 states and Washington, DC, reflecting both the drop in job openings and an increase in the unemployed.

Both hiring and layoffs were flat in nearly all states at the end of February. Since mid-2024, low hiring has been offset by few layoffs. Looking ahead, the concern is that businesses will hire even less and may even start to lay off workers, due to the policy-driven uncertainty. In this environment, it will be difficult for laid off workers to find a new job.

The number of quits changed little and remained low in most states. ADP data show that the wage premium for switching jobs continues to fall. Job changers gained a 6.5% raise in March; that is down from 7.8% a year ago. Along with the low quits rates, this suggests that wage growth, which had been a concern for the Federal Reserve, will continue to moderate this year.

At the national level, the unemployment rate barely ticked up to 4.14% in February from 4.01% in January. Month-over-month at the state level, 49 states showed no statistically significant change in the unemployment rate. Only Florida posted a change: to 3.6% in February from 3.5% in January.