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March 11, 2025

Job openings ticked up at the end of January: There were 7.7 million jobs available according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). On a three-month moving average basis, job openings have held steady in a range between 7.4 to 7.8 million since June 2024. Monthly shifts obscure a relatively stable trend.

The latest release includes annual revisions to the JOLTS data reflecting updates to the Establishment Survey's employment data. The main takeaway is that the labor market was cooler throughout 2024 than it appeared in real time.

Total job openings for the year were revised down by a cumulative -3.17 million, or -264,000 per month. The average annual monthly hiring rate was revised down to 3.43% from 3.48%. The quits rate was revised down to 2.05% from 2.08%, the layoffs rate was revised up to 1.08% from 1.06%.

Real-time data from Indeed Hiring Lab show that advertised job postings have started to edge down in 2025. They are still running around 10% above the pre-pandemic benchmark.

Job openings rose by 226,000 in the private sector month-over-month. Gains in retail trade (+143,000) and financial activities (+122,000) outweighed drops in professional and business services (-122,000). Hires, quits and layoffs all rose in that category. Companies are reorganizing their workforces with the diffusion of GenAI.

In construction, layoffs remain well below the pre-pandemic average (a 1.7% three-month moving average rate in January compared to 2.9% in 2019). Both job openings and hires ticked up at the end of January. A large share of construction workers are immigrants, both documented and undocumented. Companies are continuing to hoard labor amid crackdowns on immigration. Labor shortages and increases in materials costs from tariffs will weigh on the housing sector this year.

Job openings, quits and hires were flat in the public sector for the third month in a row. The sector was frozen in the lead up to large-scale federal layoffs and budget cuts; these picked up speed in February, after the data for the survey were collected. Layoffs could start showing up in next month's JOLTS data.

The ratio of job openings to unemployed job seekers, a measure of balance in the labor market tracked closely by Federal Reserve officials, remained flat at 1.1 for the fourth straight month. It is a touch below the pre-pandemic average.

The hiring rate remained at a low 3.4% at the end of January. On a three-month moving average basis, it has been 3.4% for five straight months. Companies are not hiring at the same rate they were a year ago.

The layoff rate remained at 1.1% on a three-month moving average basis for five straight months. In the aggregate, that has helped to offset low hiring. However, layoffs are up compared to a year earlier. 

Layoff rates are higher in some industries than others. They are trending up in mining and logging, transportation, warehousing, utilities and accommodation and food services. One report found that layoffs shot up in February. Any increase in layoffs while hiring remains weak will push up the unemployment rate.

One positive sign: The quits rate ticked up to 2.1% from 1.9%. That showed some workers were more optimistic about finding work but that could be a blip that will decline again next month. ADP data show that the wage premium for switching jobs edged lower to 6.7% in February; that is down from 6.9% in December and 6.8% in January.

The , a proxy for worker bargaining power, rose in January; that reflects both the rise in quits and decline in layoffs. The ratio is likely to decline in the months ahead as the full extent of the federal government layoffs and secondary effects on state and local governments, universities, nonprofits and private companies is fully felt.