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    U.S. tariffs: How can India redraw the trade map for its chemical exports?

    India can turn adversity into opportunity by strengthening domestic value chains, supporting MSMEs, and easing credit for a resilient chemical sector
    What India’s real estate sector hopes to see in Budget 2025

    Global supply chains have entered a phase of significant realignment, with the U.S. imposing tariffs on nearly all its trading partners, resulting in countries once again adjusting to fresh disruptions. The chemical industry—a vital part of critical supply chains and valued at almost USD6 trillion—is now facing an increasingly complex environment.1

    Today, a wide range of chemical products, produced by converting raw materials like water, minerals and fossil fuels, serve as essential inputs for a wide range of industries central to modern life. Any disruptions here can cause ripple effects across multiple sectors—such as pharmaceuticals, agriculture, metal and mining and electronics—creating bottlenecks and inefficiencies.

    But while there are challenges, there are also clear opportunities. For a developing economy like India, which currently benefits from a comparatively lower tariff exposure, this shifting landscape offers room to grow and capture new markets.

    Where does India’s chemical industry stand today?

    Valued at over USD220 billion and spanning more than 80,000 commercial products, India’s chemical industry serves as a core engine of economic growth.2 Among its Asian peers, India ranks as the third-largest chemical producer.3 On the global front, it stands sixth in overall output and 14th in chemical exports.4

    With the U.S.’s potential 26 per cent tariffs on India, trade prospects, however, remain uncertain.5 Currently, the U.S. accounts for 18 per cent—or close to USD6 billion—of India’s total chemical exports and the tariff hike could notably impact this high volume of trade.6

    To navigate this challenge, India needs to act with agility and foresight. At present, there is an advantage in our current tariff position. For instance, India exported almost USD4 billion worth of organic chemicals to the U.S.7, compared to China’s USD9 billion.8 The potential tariff advantage that India has over its Asian counterparts can give our exporters an edge, which is an opportunity to grow market share in a disrupted landscape.

    Alternate markets: Tapping unrealised export potential

    At the same time, India can diversify beyond the U.S. market. We can consider widening our trade horizons and exploring high-potential markets. Take Brazil, for instance. While we currently export approximately USD2 billion worth of chemicals, our potential there is estimated to be around USD3.5 billion.9 Similarly, there’s unrealised export potential of more than USD2 billion with China, USD1 billion with Germany and about USD560 billion with the UAE.10

    What’s holding India back? And how can we move forward?

    While new market opportunities are welcome news, the next step is to strengthen our domestic chemical manufacturing base, which can make us more capable and better positioned to capitalise on our advantages. 

    First, one of the biggest hurdles for India’s chemical exporters today is navigating a complex web of regulations and standards. For instance, complying with international standards like the U.S.’s Toxic Substances Control Act and the EU’s Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals can be both costly and time consuming due to lack of necessary infrastructure and a skilled workforce trained to navigate through complex regulatory requirements. To ease this burden, India can look to build strong compliance management systems that can simplify processes like documentation, approvals and certification. Besides, exporters can also work closely with industry bodies to voice their concerns and engage with policymakers, pushing for a more streamlined and easy regulatory landscape. 

    Second, India’s high dependence on the import of chemicals and input goods leads to longer lead times and pricing challenges, making chemical exports less competitive. Besides, India has been active in imposing anti-dumping duties to protect the domestic industry from cheap imports. While these duties serve an important purpose, they can also push up input costs for domestic manufacturers and lead to supply chain disruptions. As goods become more expensive, they lose their edge in competitive markets, making it harder for Indian exporters to retain demand and also capture market share. To address this, India can identify critical input materials, such as intermediates and specialty chemicals, that are essential for domestic chemical manufacturers and focus on building their domestic supply chains. Investing in the right infrastructure and building robust value chains can help in reducing import dependence. Along with this, while imposing anti-dumping duties, the government can consider striking a balance between protecting local producers and ensuring that the industry does not face high input costs or supply shortages.   

    Lastly, India faces stiff competition from leading global chemical manufacturers like the U.S. and China, who lead in both production and exports.11  To compete on that scale, India needs to boost its global competitiveness by investing more in technology and R&D. We can take lessons from global best practices to match the innovation and scale of these top global players. For instance, China has developed an extensive network of over 600 chemical parks.12  In comparison, India has four Petroleum, Chemicals and Petrochemical Investment Regions.13  Going ahead, the government can accelerate the development of such specialised industrial zones, which can also help in boosting R&D and accelerating tech integration across the sector. Additionally, the private sector can also increase innovation investments. Currently, some of the larger specialty chemical companies in India spend less than 3 per cent of their revenue towards R&D activities, which can be increased to enhance technological upgradations.14

    Besides, to strengthen the domestic value chains—especially for critical input materials—the government can enhance support to the MSME sector by making credit more affordable, lowering interest rates and easing collateral norms. Given the capital-intensive nature of the chemical industry, these measures can make our domestic manufacturing ecosystem more competitive and resilient. 

    There is adversity. But there is also opportunity. India can play on its strengths while also addressing underlying manufacturing challenges to capture a larger market, helping the chemical sector turn current disruptions into long-term gains. 

    [1] Chemical industry worldwide - statistics and facts, Statista, 24 February 2025, accessed on 21 April 2025
    °Ú2±ÕÌýChemicals industry and exports, IBEF, April 2025, accessed on 21 April 2025
    °Ú3±ÕÌýChemicals industry and exports, IBEF, April 2025, accessed on 21 April 2025
    °Ú4±ÕÌýChemicals industry and exports, IBEF, April 2025, accessed on 21 April 2025
    [5] U.S. hikes tariff on Indian imports to 26 per cent, India Briefing, 4 April 2025, accessed on 21 April 2025
    [6] India evaluates impact of U.S. tariffs on chemicals and petrochemical sector, Polymerupdate, 17 April 2025, accessed on 21 April 2025
    [7] United States imports from India of organic chemicals, Trading Economics, April 2025, accessed on 21 April 2025
    °Ú8±ÕÌýUnited States imports from China of organic chemicals, Trading Economics, April 2025, accessed on 21 April 2025
    [9] Export potential map, ITC, accessed on 21 April 2025
    °Ú10±ÕÌýExport potential map, ITC, accessed on 21 April 2025
    [11] What country is the leading producer of chemicals: Chemical exports by country, TradeImeX, 19 February 2025, accessed on 16 May 2025
    [12] Challenges and strategies for chemical parks in China, ChemLinked, 9 August 2019, accessed on 21 April 2025
    [13] India’s chemical industry expected to reach USD304 Billion by 2025, 8 August 2023, accessed on 21 April 2025
    [14] Specialty chemicals industry in India, ÀÖÓ㣨Leyu£©ÌåÓý¹ÙÍø India, November 2022, accessed on 21 April 2025


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    Author

    Neeraj Bansal

    Partner and Head India Global

    ÀÖÓ㣨Leyu£©ÌåÓý¹ÙÍø in India


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