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The US government's new customs policy marks a turning point in the global economy. It affects all market participants and also requires the German TMT industries (technology, media and telecommunications) to reorient themselves. It is not so much the direct tariff burdens, but rather the comprehensive effects of the new trade policy that are fundamentally changing the rules of the game for companies from Germany.

On 9 April 2025, the US government wanted to impose punitive tariffs of 20% on almost all EU imports. On the same day, a postponement of the increases by 90 days was announced. However, it is likely that the tariff conflict has only been postponed and not cancelled. This means that companies cannot plan ahead for the time being.

Tariff increases would have severe consequences for key German industries such as the automotive sector. But the tech sector would also be affected: Communication technologies, hardware components and high-tech devices would become more expensive and therefore less competitive on the US market.

Digital services and software are also increasingly becoming the focus of transatlantic tensions. The tariffs generally only apply to physical goods - software that is sold through digital distribution (e.g. downloads or SaaS offerings) is therefore not directly affected by US tariffs. Nevertheless, indirect effects are possible: for example, if a company obtains software updates from the USA or if it relies on American cloud services. In addition, trade restrictions or high tariffs on certain hardware could also make the infrastructure required to provide software more expensive.

Digital services such as Software-as-a-Service (SaaS), cloud services or platforms for content and e-commerce are also not subject to customs duties. Rather, their provision is influenced by regulatory provisions. But there are indirect consequences here too: If US companies provide the infrastructure for digital services, changes in US economic policy could increase the costs or availability of these services for German companies.

In addition, the Digital Markets Act (DMA) and the Digital Services Act (DSA), for example, have been criticised by the US as protectionist barriers to trade. Planned digital taxes on US tech companies and discussions about data localisation are further exacerbating regulatory complexity. For German companies, this means more uncertainty and rising infrastructure and compliance costs.

According to a Bitkom survey, the majority of German digital companies expect massive burdens from the new US customs policy. Start-ups are considering expanding their business in the USA or relocating there - not least because around half of European start-ups are financed with US capital. European semiconductor manufacturers, for whom the USA is an important sales market, could relocate their production to the United States.

For companies that remain in Germany, it is becoming increasingly important to deal with volatility and incalculable risks. Customs duties and taxes represent an additional cost factor. There are also compliance costs for adjustments to possible regulatory changes and costs for restructuring measures. There may also be short-term supply bottlenecks or market access restrictions.

The global turbulence requires greater digital sovereignty for Europe: the self-determined use and production of digital technologies is essential in order to reduce dependencies and expand the room for manoeuvre of European companies. This would bring numerous opportunities. Projects such as GAIA-X and the European Chips Act promote the demand for domestic solutions in areas such as data centres and cloud computing, AI platforms and IT security.

The European data centre industry could benefit from the current US economic and customs policy in several ways. European data centres are becoming increasingly attractive for internationally active companies - especially if they want to reduce their dependence on US infrastructures. Countries such as Germany and the Netherlands score highly in terms of political stability and high data protection standards. Europe can also make a name for itself as a sustainable location - with a focus on energy efficiency, renewable energies and CO�-neutral data centres. Another driver: tariffs on US imports could cause hardware prices to rise. This creates incentives to produce IT hardware in Europe and expand existing production facilities. The new German government has recognised this opportunity. According to the coalition agreement, Germany is to become a "beacon of Europe" as a data centre location. This means that both large data centre clusters and regional locations are to receive political support.

The protectionist economic policy of the USA is leading to global tensions and uncertainties. The European IT and data centre industry has the opportunity to position itself as a reliable, neutral and sustainable alternative to US infrastructures. Companies that make targeted investments now and strengthen their own IT infrastructures can benefit in the long term and take on a leading role in a market environment that is more strongly characterised by Europe.