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    About 乐鱼(Leyu)体育官网 FPI

    We are pleased to share with you the Q125 edition of our quarterly 乐鱼(Leyu)体育官网 Financial Performance Index (FPI) publication. In this edition we provide our insights into the changing state of corporate health across all UK markets and sectors.

    The 乐鱼(Leyu)体育官网 FPI is a metric used to measure a company鈥檚 financial health by its 鈥榩robability to default鈥�. The analysis has been prepared using the probability to default formula which takes into account financial information and market data, as designed by John Y. Campbell, Jens Hilscher, and Jan Szilagyi.

    The FPI score ranges from 0 - 100. The lower the score, the more likely a company is to default. In contrast, the higher the score, the less likely it is to default. In this analysis, released every three months, we analyse the 乐鱼(Leyu)体育官网 FPI score movements of publicly listed companies in the UK to draw insights into corporate health across the UK economy.

    乐鱼(Leyu)体育官网 FPI combines both market and financial information to determine a company鈥檚 relative financial distress levels. Combining these information sets creates a more complete picture of corporate health than either source in isolation. For more information please visit the 乐鱼(Leyu)体育官网 FPI page.

    Chris Coley

    Partner

    乐鱼(Leyu)体育官网 in the UK


    An indicator of corporate health for companies headquartered in the UK

    Between December 2024 and March 2025 we observed a slight decrease in the UK鈥檚 乐鱼(Leyu)体育官网 FPI score, from 91.7 to 90.9. This indicates an overall decrease in the financial health of companies headquartered in the UK. Out of the 24 sectors analysed, significant improvement was observed across Raw Materials & Natural Resources (+5.3 percentage points) and Pharmaceuticals (+4.1 percentage points).聽 The most significant decrease in financial health was observed in Life Sciences Tools and Services (-13.9 percentage points) and Biotechnology (-4.5 percentage points).

    Several sectors now demonstrate strong financial health (an FPI score over 95.0) including Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), Infrastructure and Real Estate, Utilities and Business Services.

    乐鱼(Leyu)体育官网 FPI analysed across UK

    Key highlights: Q125

      • Despite robust household savings and strong public spending bolstering the economy in 2025, risks from tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty limit the forecast for UK GDP growth to 0.8% in both 2025 and 2026.
      • Current forecasts project inflation of 3.2% for 2025 and 2.3% for 2026. Whilst supply shocks from prior years are not forecast to repeat, rises in the National Living Wage and National Insurance Contributions are expected to be passed through to consumers.
      • To date the Bank of England has been cautious and slowly cut interest rates, due to concerns over creating inflationary pressures. When announcing a cut of base rate to 4.25% in May 2025, the Bank of England referenced a need to make careful and gradual reductions to base rate.
      • It is anticipated that UK public investment will increase in the medium term, which if strategically planned has the potential to stimulate additional private sector investment.
      • Despite a slow start to the year, domestic growth is anticipated to aid the UK economy's recovery, fuelled by higher real household disposable incomes and increased government expenditure.
      • However, the primary challenge remains exports, where sluggish international growth, friction at borders and the looming threat of tariffs continue to pose significant risks to growth prospects.
      • Preliminary data indicates that the labour market has performed better than anticipated, with a gradual easing in unemployment. However, the significant rise in National Insurance and National Living Wage costs for employers which has now come into place could lead to a notable drop in employment 鈥� at the point of writing it is too early to tell and we await further releases of employment data.

      Further analysis of the UK鈥檚 economic outlook can be found here.

      Movements of 乐鱼(Leyu)体育官网 FPI score

      Sector movers:

        • Life Sciences Tools and Services (78.6), Biotechnology (90.5) and Food and Beverage (91.1) demonstrated the lowest overall financial health in Q125, and thereby higher probability of default. The Technology and Telecommunication sector scored only 89.7 in Q125, a drop of 2.6 percentage points from Q424.
        • Life Sciences Tools and Services sector experienced a 13.9 percentage points decline, with its FPI score falling from 91.3 in Q424 to 78.6 in Q125. Despite being a government-identified key sector for economic growth, the UK Life Sciences sector lags behind international competitors in terms of foreign direct investment, levels of clinical trials, overall employment and overseas pharmaceutical exports. The estimated combined annual 鈥渃ost鈥� of these lags in competitiveness is estimated to be 拢15bn per year.
        • Biotechnology sector registered a 4.5 percentage point decline to 90.5 in Q125, primarily due to the funding crisis in the UK Biotech market. The UK Biotechnology sector is heavily dependent on venture capital and public financing; the sector has recently experienced a significant drop in new launches and IPOs, thereby driving reduced capital flow, hindering innovation and growth. The sector remains globally attractive, but sustained growth needs stronger policy support and long-term domestic investment.
        • Food and Beverage sector declined from 95.2 in 4Q24 to 91.1 in Q125 (-4.3 percentage points), mainly due to rising energy and commodity prices, increased National Insurance contributions, the rise in the National Living Wage, and a labour skill shortage. There are also concerns over a potential grocery price war and the impact of margins for suppliers into supermarkets. These factors have negatively impacted business sentiment among manufacturers. To address this, the Food and Drink Federation (FDF) has launched the "Ingredients for Growth" plan to boost investment and productivity in the sector.
        • Ten sectors (out of 24) posted quarter-on-quarter growth in Q125 FPI scores; Raw Materials and Natural Resources, Pharmaceuticals, Infrastructure and Real Estate and Consumer Markets being the top growing sectors.

        乐鱼(Leyu)体育官网 FPI quarterly sector moves across UK
        乐鱼(Leyu)体育官网 FPI subsector movements across UK
        Aerospace and defense
        Biotechnology
        Business services
        Chemicals
        Consumer markets
        Energy
        REITs
        Financial services
        Food and beverage
        Healthcare
        Infrastructure and real estate
        Life sciences
        Manufacturing
        Media and entertainment
        Pharmaceuticals
        Raw materials and natural resources
        Technology and telecommunication
        Trading companies and distributors
        Travel and hospitality
        Utilities

        Trends of Zombies in the 乐鱼(Leyu)体育官网 FPI across Europe

          Trends of Zombies in the 乐鱼(Leyu)体育官网 FPI across Europe


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          The information contained in this document is of a general nature and is not intended to address the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual or entity. It is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute, nor should it be regarded in any manner whatsoever, as advice and is not intended to influence a person in making a decision, including, if applicable, in relation to any financial product or an interest in a financial product. Although we endeavour to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation. To the extent permissible by law, 乐鱼(Leyu)体育官网 and its associated entities shall not be liable for any errors, omissions, defects or misrepresentations in the information or for any loss or damage suffered by persons who use or rely on such information (including for reasons of negligence, negligent misstatement or otherwise).


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