Sunday 26 February 2023 marked 50 years since Canberra and Hanoi . Since the beginning, the bilateral relationship has been shaped by geopolitics. Today, the Asia-Pacific region is coming under pressure from growing competition between the two major regional powers, China and the United States (US). In this contested geopolitical context, Australia needs strong bilateral connections with Vietnam more than ever.
To grow these connections, Australia needs to understand how Vietnam sees the world, so we can continue to build an effective, reciprocal and sustainable relationship.
The background to where we are today
The early 1970s marked a turning point in world history. The Cold War was waning as the US and Soviet Union committed to . President Richard Nixon . In Australia, the newly-elected Prime Minister Gough Whitlam with China and East Germany. In this geopolitical climate of d茅tente, even recent wartime adversaries were burying their differences. In 1973, the marked the beginning of the end of the Vietnam war.
Hanoi was seeking international recognition, which the new Australian government was to provide. Gough Whitlam advocated an in the global power balance, for Australia to look beyond 鈥溾€�. If Australia was to survive and thrive in this geopolitical climate, Whitlam believed that links with Asia were crucial.
Engagement between Australia and Vietnam was limited in the early years of the diplomatic relationship. In 1976-77, two-way trade with Australia totalled just , compared to in 2021. Positive personal and cultural ties between the two nations have built steadily over the decades, and significantly increased once Vietnamese migrants began arriving in Australia from 1975 onwards. Australia鈥檚 vibrant Vietnamese diaspora now numbers over 270,000, making it the migrant group.
The present
If the 1970s was a time of growing integration between former ideological adversaries, the 2020s is a period of pulling back from global interdependence. The US and China are seeking to in a number of strategic sectors. Australia and Vietnam are two mid-sized economies juggling links with both superpowers.
The two nations have developed over the past 50 years, and in 2018 upgraded their bilateral relationship to a . Both governments share the view that should underpin global economic growth, and both are active members of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (), the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership () and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (). Both nations are committed to free navigation in the South China Sea. Vietnam is Australia鈥檚 , with two-way trade valued at AU$17.9 billion in 2021.
There are also some challenges that the two countries face. The (AUKUS) security agreement may be a source of some wariness, although Vietnam has so far greeted the agreement in a neutral fashion, in contrast with some . Another challenge has been what analysts have referred to as Australia鈥檚 shifting foreign policy focus from .
The future
There are economic and strategic reasons for Australia to pursue closer relations with Vietnam. Vietnam is a in the global economic outlook, with the projecting GDP growth of over 5 percent for the next few years, and a population that will reach this year.
They are complementary economic partners 鈥� a 2020 identified multiple areas for increased collaboration, including agriculture, resources, education, renewable energy, and digital services. Australia is an attractive destination for Vietnamese private and commercial investors in a range of industries including real estate, electric vehicles, financial services and the dairy sector, as outlined in a from Asia Society.
Australian education is also seeing following the impacts of the pandemic. In addition, for strategic goods and in the South China Sea will provide greater and greater geopolitical impetus for cooperation. Interdependencies can help both countries diversify markets and supply sources and reduce vulnerability to great power competition. Other geopolitical benefits could include more secure access to contested sea-lanes and mutual support in multilateral negotiations.
If Australia鈥檚 partnership with Vietnam is to achieve a meaningful level of geopolitical cooperation, Australian policy makers require a nuanced understanding of how Vietnam sees the world. Establishing bilateral mechanisms to address concerns around security, foreign investment, movement of people and trade would help develop this shared understanding, as would engaging directly and respectfully on the topic of AUKUS and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (the ).
Australia could also seek to better understand Vietnam鈥檚 complex relationship with direct neighbour, China. Despite territorial concerns, Vietnam seeks to that China represents, in contrast with Australia鈥檚 recent efforts to reduce reliance.
Comprehensive bilateral engagement is a complex proposition, even between countries that have never been at war. The benefits of getting it right are significant, including export and investment opportunities for firms in both countries, professional and cultural opportunities for individuals, and shared values, goals and greater security and prosperity for the nations as a whole.
